Xavier Becerra has opened a significant lead in California’s governor’s race just days before the state’s primary election, according to a new statewide poll that suggests Democrats are likely to avoid a feared November shutout.
The Public Policy Institute of California survey released Wednesday found Becerra leading the crowded field with 23% of likely voters’ support. Republican candidate Steve Hilton followed with 20%, while businessman and environmental activist Tom Steyer drew 15%.
The race was shaken up last month when Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-California) dropped out of the race after assault allegations.
The results mark one of the clearest signs yet that Becerra has emerged as the Democratic frontrunner in the race to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom.
California’s top-two primary system advances the two highest vote-getters regardless of party affiliation. For months, Democratic strategists worried that a crowded field could divide left-leaning voters and allow two Republicans to advance to the general election in the heavily Democratic state.
The new poll suggests those concerns may be fading.
Becerra, who previously served as California attorney general and secretary of Health and Human Services under former President Joe Biden, has campaigned on his long record in government and support for expanded healthcare access, abortion protections and climate policies.
Steyer’s campaign has attempted to blunt Becerra’s momentum in recent weeks by airing advertisements attacking his ties to oil industry donors. But the poll indicates those attacks have not significantly reshaped the race heading into the final stretch before voting concludes.
A potential matchup between Becerra and Hilton in November would likely favor Democrats, given California’s voter registration advantage for the party. Democrats hold roughly a two-to-one registration edge over Republicans statewide.
The poll also showed California voters sharply divided over several potential ballot initiatives expected to dominate political debate later this year.
A proposed one-time wealth tax targeting billionaires received support from 54% of likely voters surveyed, while 45% opposed it. The measure has not officially qualified for the ballot, though supporters have reportedly submitted enough signatures to move the process forward.
Meanwhile, a Republican-backed proposal requiring voter identification at polling places appeared far more vulnerable. The survey found only 49% support for the measure overall. Opposition was particularly strong among Democrats and independent voters.
Despite ongoing criticism of California’s election structure, voters appear largely supportive of the state’s nonpartisan primary system. According to the poll, 59% of Californians said they favor keeping the top-two format in place.
The findings arrive as campaigns enter the final days before the primary, with millions already casting ballots by mail across the nation’s most populous state.
If the polling holds, Becerra could head into November as the favorite to extend Democrats’ decades-long dominance of statewide politics.
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